It is as if there were two planets: the one in which we actually live and the one, considerably more deterministic, on which people are convinced we live. It is as simple as that: Past events will always look less random than they were (it is called the hindsight bias). I would listen to someone’s discussion of his own past realizing that much of what he was saying was just backfit explanations concocted ex post by his deluded mind. Bias
People think that there is a story when there is none. Psychologists call this overestimation of what one knew at the time of the event due to subsequent information the hindsight bias, the “I knew it all along” effect." Bias
Psychologists call this overestimation of what one knew at the time of the event due to subsequent information the hindsight bias, the “I knew it all along” effect. Bias
This has led to the belief in "irrationality" and "biases" as a way to explain human behavior deviating from what economic models predict. However, many "biases" disappear when you realize that people intuitively understand periodicity. Human Nature Bias Ergodicity